Arsenal vs Brighton – Analysis, Prediction, Team News

Sunday 14th May 2023
16:30 GMT
Emirates Stadium

As part of our weekend Premier League predictions, we take a look at Brighton’s trip to the Emirates Stadium. With City in great form, nothing less than a win will do for Arsenal – can they get it? Free betting tips and more with our Arsenal vs Brighton prediction.



2-0 (A)


3-1 (H)

Man City

4-1 (A)


3-3 (H)

West Ham

2-2 (A)



5-1 (H)

Man Utd

1-0 (H)


6-0 (H)

Nottingham Forest

3-1 (A)


2-1 (A)

Arsenal vs Brighton Preview

Arsenal come into this crucial match knowing that anything less than a victory here would probably hand the Premier League title to Manchester City. Assuming City were to defeat Everton, they’d hold a four-point advantage over Mikel Arteta’s men, and City would therefore need just two points at most from three matches to lift the title owing to their vastly superior goal difference. Arsenal do have relatively kind fixtures to close out the season with a trip to Nottingham and their final home match of the season against Wolves.

Should Arsenal fall short, they will be by no means disgraced. There has been widespread talk of ‘choking’ from the North London outfit, but in all honesty, very few predicted them to be where they are at this stage of the season. The truth is that top four and Champions League qualification would have been seen at the start of the season as real progress, and therefore finishing well clear of the chasing pack in second place would represent a terrific season.

Brighton have similarly overperformed relative to expectations, and are still firmly in the race for European qualification (either Europa League or UEFA Conference League) with three games in hand over Aston Villa and Spurs. Games in hand of course do not equate to points earned, but their fate is effectively in their own hands. Including this fixture, they face five games in a 14-day period which is sure to test their squad to its limits.

It clearly doesn’t help that they were hopelessly outmanoeuvred in their 5-1 home defeat to Everton. Sean Dyche’s men were able to brutally expose Brighton’s main weakness, which is of course defending in transition. When your team plays a possession-heavy style of football combined with a high line to compress the play in the opponent’s half, it’s inevitable that the other team which create chances on the counter. Brighton have had something of a mixed record in dealing with this issue, which is part of the team’s evolution.

Team News

Injuries and Suspensions


Might Not Play:

Will Not Play: Elneny, Saliba, Tomiyasu, Zinchenko


Might Not Play: Veltman

Will Not Play: Lallana, Lamptey, March, Sarmiento, Webster

Arsenal vs Brighton Lineups (Predicted)

Arsenal (4-3-3/4-2-3-1): Ramsdale; Tierney, Gabriel, Kiwior, White; Jorginho, Xhaka; Martinelli, Odegaard, Saka; Jesus

Brighton (4-2-3-1): Steele; Estupinan, Dunk, Colwill, Gross; Caicedo, Mac Allister; Mitoma, Enciso, Buonanotte; Ferguson

Arsenal vs Brighton Lineup
Brighton vs Arsenal Lineup

Arsenal vs Brighton Analysis

Surely Arsenal Won’t Play Like Everton – Or Will They?

We exaggerate of course – Everton were pinned back for long periods, particularly in the second half and they had to weather heavy pressure. They were good value for the win as Brighton relied on speculative balls into the box to generate chances (though they nearly took a couple of them with the woodwork coming to the rescue). However, if you cast your mind back to the reverse fixture, Arsenal won 4-2 with 7 shots on target… with 32% possession.

Brighton can sometimes be guilty of only knowing how to play one way. It works when their opponents can’t get going in transition. It can be argued that they met Manchester United in the league at the right time, as the goals were drying up for them (8 goals in 10 Premier League matches). However, following a rocky patch in which Arsenal lost their grip on the Premier League title, they put three past Chelsea and produced a controlled performance in a 2-0 victory over Newcastle during which at times they were happy to cede possession and territory. We expect more of the same here.

Brighton Can Exploit Arsenal’s Depleted Back Line

It’s not the case that Arsenal’s backups are poor players by any stretch of the imagination – Tierney and Kiwior are capable replacements at this level – it’s more that they miss the influential Frenchman William Saliba at the heart of their defence, and Zinchenko gives them another option moving into midfield with his versatility and positional awareness. Arsenal are getting results, but they’re no longer the rampant team that took the Premier League by storm earlier this season.

With that in mind, Brighton should be looking to play their normal blend of what might be called vertical tiki-taka. With no signs of reining themselves in against any opponent, we expect to see them probing away but also, when the opportunity arises, running directly at the defence with the ball at their feet, attempting to create overloads and looking to supply the talented youngster Evan Ferguson in attack at the earliest opportunity.

Our Prediction

Forget Brighton’s mauling by Everton – that was most likely a one-off in which everything fell for the visitors. Brighton didn’t help themselves with a lack of imagination in attack, but they’ll have more space to work with against Arsenal. However, we do expect the visitors to have approximately 60% of the ball as they look to take the initiative.

This can suit Arsenal. Arsenal aren’t a long-ball team by any means, but they do like to transition rapidly through a succession of passes that don’t always emphasise controlling possession. All season long, at least until their slump, they have been able to catch teams off guard by picking up the tempo. It’s unlikely that Brighton will keep them out and therefore we’re backing Arsenal to come through this test to hang onto Manchester City’s coattails.

Arsenal 2-1 Brighton

Arsenal vs Brighton Betting Tip – Arsenal Odds:


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