World Cup 2022 Group D Preview

France enter the tournament on a disappointing run of form. In their Nations League campaign, they finished third in their group. They were eight points behind winners Croatia and seven points behind rivals in this group Denmark, which cannot breed confidence. Indeed, they came close to relegation to League B, finishing only a point above Austria. Scoring five goals and conceding seven, they had a negative goal difference. This form could be better preparation for the defence of their title. However, they are still reigning World Champions and, with a vast pool of talented players to select from, will go into their opener against Australia determined to win. Australia are arguably the weakest team in the group on paper. Hence, France must start well. They then face a showdown with fellow Europeans Denmark in the middle match if they can. The high-flying Danes have beaten them twice this year, which will linger in French minds, but they will have designs on winning the game or attaining at least a point. Suppose they can enter the final match against Tunisia (a former French protectorate) with at least four points. In that case, they will be confident they can win the match and qualify. However, France will want to top the group if they can, theoretically getting a more leisurely round of sixteen tie. They will also be wary of the curse of the champions. This phenomenon had seen the last four European winners (France before, Italy, Spain, and Germany) eliminated in the group stage of the edition immediately following their title. France play more conservatively than their talent suggests, but the coach might let them off the leash at some point.

Australia arrive in Qatar, having won four of their previous five matches, with the solitary draw essentially being a victory in the shootout win over Peru as qualification for this tournament. This qualification was sandwiched between defeats of Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, and New Zealand (twice). Therefore, they come into the competition in good form. Still, the opposition was not the most challenging, and they know their adversaries in this group represent a step up in class, particularly the European sides. Australia have the advantage of playing all their matches in the same stadium. They are quite an attritional side and will seek to frustrate their opponents. Their first match is against the French, where they are massive underdogs, despite France’s average form of late. Australia will expect to lose, but gaining a point would be a huge bonus. Following this, they face Tunisia in what indeed represents the best opportunity for either team to achieve a win. Tunisia have some technically gifted players, and Australia will have to be wary. Still, they know they can grind out a win against relatively modest opposition in this match. The final match is against the Danes, which Australia will, in all probability, go into knowing they need something from to qualify for the knockout stage. Denmark are a strong team; again, the Aussies will have to frustrate them and hit them on the counter. Overall, it is a very challenging task for Australia, and third place in this group represents success. However, if they can somehow finish second, they will be ecstatic.

Denmark have enjoyed a resurgence in recent years, reaching the semi-finals of Euro 2020 and coming within one match of reaching the Nations League Finals. Still, they will be relatively pleased with their Nations League campaign. They won four matches (twice against France and Austria) and lost two (the matches against Croatia) of their six. The blemishes against Croatia are what cost them progression, so they will want to iron out any potential weaknesses. Their first match at the tournament itself is against Tunisia. This match represents a real opportunity for Denmark to stake a claim and get off to a good start. The Tunisians are a decent team, but Denmark are certainly better than them. They will look to impose their high-pressing, high-energy game on the Africans. If they can win, they will confidently enter the second match against the French, knowing they had their number in both matches this year in the Nations League. Both teams might take a point in the match right now, but equally, the Danes will try to win. They will know that a victory will all but assure progression if they have also beaten Tunisia. If they enter the final match against Australia on four or six points, they will have designs on topping the section. Australia are the weakest team in the group on paper. Suppose the first two matches have gone badly for Denmark. In that case, they still have the insurance policy of this match to clinch second place potentially. Still, the Danes will hope to finish first.

Africans Tunisia enter the tournament in relatively good form, with four victories in their previous six matches, including wins over Chile and fellow qualifiers Japan. However, their most recent match in September against pre-tournament favourites Brazil was a disaster. They lost 5-1, though Brazil can decimate any opposition, so they will not feel too disheartened. Their opener against Denmark represents one of this group’s two most demanding tests. The Danes are a very technical and energetic team. The Tunisians must match that work rate and tenacity to emerge from the match with anything. If they can pick up a point, they enter the second match with Australia, knowing it is the best chance for either side to obtain a victory in this group (as stated above). The Australians will look to frustrate them, so they must use their creativity in the final third to break them down. If they can emerge from what should be a cagey affair against Australia with three points, they could arrive in the final match with three or four points. They will hope to have four, as this match will be against their former colonial rulers, France. Tunisia will know they are unlikely to get anything out of this match, especially if France need to pick up points. Alternatively, as in the other match with Denmark and Australia (which kicks off simultaneously), if France are already through, they may well play a weakened team, which would play into Tunisia’s hands. Either way, Tunisia will probably need to get something in this match or at least avoid a heavy defeat to have any chance of progression to the knockout stage.