Mexico vs Poland Prediction

World Cup Head-to-Head Record

Played:1. Poland wins:1

Mexico vs Poland Prediction Match Overview

On the third day of the tournament, CONCACAF country Mexico play UEFA country Poland in Al Rayyan in the second match of group C. The game will be an evening one at 7 pm local time. Mexico are ranked 13th in the world, while Poland are ranked 26th.

Mexico enter the tournament in relatively poor form, with narrow losses to Sweden, Colombia, and Paraguay in the last few months. They managed to beat Iraq and Peru, but coach Gerardo Martino has come under fire for a perceived underwhelming style of play and poor performances. Indeed, they only scored eight goals in those five matches.

Poland also come into the World Cup in reasonably poor condition, having won two and lost two of their recent five matches. Indeed, four of those matches were part of the UEFA Nations League. They finished a disappointing third in their group with a goal difference of -6. They have been goal-shy despite having star striker Robert Lewandowski in their ranks. Indeed, they only scored four goals in those five games.

Injuries and Suspensions

Will Not Play:

Might Not Play: Raul Gimenez

Possible Lineups

Mexico vs Poland Prediction Analysis

Mexico will likely play a 4-3-3 system, with ever-dependable goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa in goal. At full-back, Jesus Gallardo and Jorge Sanchez should play. They will be required to bomb up and down the left and right flanks, supporting the Mexican front players. Poland will likely play a 3-5-1-1/3-5-2, with Nicola Zalewski and Przemyslaw Frankowski providing the width from wing-back. Therefore, there might be space behind them for the Mexican full-backs to exploit. Going the other way, Zalewski and Frankowski are talented players when attacking. This situation is where the Mexican midfield comes in. Indeed, it will be up to a likely trident of Hector Herrera, veteran Andres Guardado, and defensive midfielder Edson Alvarez holding to cover the spaces when Gallardo and Sanchez go forward.

The Mexicans will likely have more of the ball in this match, as the Poles generally concede the possession battle. Their plan tends to be to get it out to the wing-backs mentioned above and the classy Piotr Zielinski just behind their star player Robert Lewandowski. They will look to provide crosses for Lewandowski to attack, as the number 9 and captain is lethal in the air. This is where Hector Moreno and Cesar Montes will be vital. Montes is especially crucial as, at 6 foot 5, he has the height and aerial ability to challenge Lewandowski. Lewandowski is also very good with his back to goal and the ball at his feet. He will attempt to get shots off when the ball comes to him and hold it up to allow Zielinski to join him in the final third. Zielinski possesses an excellent shot, so Mexico won’t want him to have the ball too close to the goal. As a cultured left-footed centre-back, Moreno will be responsible for bringing the ball out from the back and distributing it to the Mexican midfield. Indeed, the midfield battle looks intriguing in this contest. Despite his advancing years, Grzegorz Krychowiak will likely play holding midfielder for Poland. The coach will look for experience, as he is known for setting his teams up conservatively and playing on the counter-attack. The two Szymanskis (Sebastian and Damian) may play in front of him, and their battle with Guardado, Herrera and Alvarez will be crucial.

Mexico certainly have the stronger midfield. Alvarez can tidy up any loose balls or attempts by the Polish full-backs to get in behind. Herrera has the dynamism, pressing ability, and hard-tackling to unsettle the Poles. Guardado, for his part, is still a classy, elegant all-round midfielder at the age of 36. He can take good free kicks (set pieces might be crucial in this match) and provide service to the Mexican front three through slide-rule balls and crosses. That front three will likely consist of Hirving Lozano and Alexis Vega out wide and Raul Jimenez as the target man in the middle. Lozano can dribble and take on his man, coming inside onto the Polish back three in the spaces vacated by Frankowski. Vega, on the other side, can do the same. They will look to shoot themselves, slide little balls in for Jimenez, or cross it in for him to attack. The Polish defence seems vulnerable. Hence, Mexico will fancy their chances.

Both teams can switch things up with substitutions. Jimenez is an injury doubt, so if he doesn’t play, Henry Martin could start. Nestor Araujo is a different centre-back option. Kevin Alvarez and Gerardo Arteaga can cover Sanchez and Gallardo at right-back and left-back, respectively. Orbelin Pineda might also start in place of Vega out wide. For Poland, Aston Villa’s Matty Cash is a different wing-back option on the right. Kamil Grosicki can play out wide too. In attack, Krzysztof Piatek, Arkadiusz Milik, and Karol Swiderski can come on to support Lewandowski or replace him in the event of injury or fatigue.

Mexico Key Players

Andres Guardado

Hirving Lozano

Poland Key Players

Robert Lewandowski

Piotr Zielinski

Mexico vs Poland Prediction

Both teams come into the tournament in unimpressive form, with their coaches facing criticism. If the group goes to form, you would imagine Argentina will finish top and Saudi Arabia last. Thus, this game could go a long way to deciding second place. Mexico should have more of the ball. Despite Lewandowski’s presence, they have the stronger midfield and the tricky wide men to break down a potentially stubborn and negative Polish side. We believe Mexico will create chances and make their probable superior possession count. Therefore, we predict a narrow Mexican win.